Leixoes 1-3 Vilaverdense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.75
Draw
34%
3.45
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.74
Over 2.5
38%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.89
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.04
6+ Goals
8%
18.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.89 — our 34% vs market 28.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
54%
-14.8pp
34%
Draw
26%
+7.7pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+7.1pp
62%
Under 2.5
54%
+8.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
46%
-8.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leixoes EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Vilaverdense EU Bookmakers 23%
-22% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.21/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.89
-50% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
352 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.2 Crosses 19.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leixoes
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Vilaverdense
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.61 xG 1.12
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
338 Passes 183
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
31 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.12.2023 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense 1-0 HT 1-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
16.10.2021 Leixoes Leixoes 5-1 HT 1-0 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leixoes
1-3
AWAY Vilaverdense
0.78 xG 0.65
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
294 Passes 184
76% Pass Accuracy 62%
40 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Leixoes vs Vilaverdense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vilaverdense beat Leixoes 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 34% / 28%) promised a tight game; Vilaverdense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leixoes had 58% of the ball to Vilaverdense's 42%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 0.78 to 0.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Leixoes and 1.00 for Vilaverdense.

What was the final score of Leixoes vs Vilaverdense?

Leixoes 1-3 Vilaverdense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leixoes vs Vilaverdense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leixoes win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Leixoes 39%, draw 34%, Vilaverdense 28%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Leixoes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
27 Apr 2024
13:00 Mafra vs UD Oliveirense Analysis →
16:00 Maritimo vs CD Feirense Analysis →