Mafra 3-3 UD Oliveirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.9
Over 2.5
43%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.47
6+ Goals
8%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 32% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.5pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+1.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.8pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 36%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.37/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.99
-11% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -32%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
285 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.9 Crosses 16.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mafra
2W-2D-2L
AWAY UD Oliveirense
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.36 xG 1.01
55% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
350 Passes 249
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.12.2023 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 1-3 HT 0-2 Mafra Mafra POR2
29.01.2023 Mafra Mafra 2-3 HT 0-2 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
06.08.2022 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 3-1 HT 0-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
18.04.2021 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-0 HT 0-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
20.12.2020 Mafra Mafra 2-2 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
04.01.2020 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 1-3 HT 0-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra
3-3
AWAY UD Oliveirense
2.76 xG 1.16
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 3
345 Passes 189
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mafra vs UD Oliveirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mafra and UD Oliveirense shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mafra had 61% of the ball to UD Oliveirense's 39%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.76 to 1.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Mafra and 1.67 for UD Oliveirense.

What was the final score of Mafra vs UD Oliveirense?

Mafra 3-3 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra vs UD Oliveirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mafra win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mafra 39%, draw 28%, UD Oliveirense 33%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mafra) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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