Maritimo 3-2 CD Feirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.45
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
25%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.64
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.31
6+ Goals
8%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 31% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
65%
-17.7pp
28%
Draw
21%
+7.1pp
25%
Away Win
14%
+10.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.9pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Feirense EU Bookmakers 17%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.11/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.51
-29% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +37%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.1 Crosses 17.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY CD Feirense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.15 xG 1.29
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
252 Passes 212
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
16 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
17.12.2023 CD Feirense CD Feirense 0-1 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
14.04.2019 Maritimo Maritimo 2-0 HT 2-0 CD Feirense CD Feirense POR
10.12.2018 CD Feirense CD Feirense 1-1 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
25.11.2018 Maritimo Maritimo 0-3 HT 0-2 CD Feirense CD Feirense POK
31.10.2018 CD Feirense CD Feirense 3-2 HT 2-1 Maritimo Maritimo PORLC
30.03.2018 Maritimo Maritimo 4-1 HT 0-0 CD Feirense CD Feirense POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo
3-2
AWAY CD Feirense
2.56 xG 1.02
67% Ball Possession 33%
20 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
389 Passes 162
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
29 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Maritimo vs CD Feirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo squeezed past CD Feirense 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Maritimo as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Maritimo had 67% of the ball to CD Feirense's 33%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 2.56 to 1.02 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Maritimo's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Maritimo and 1.33 for CD Feirense.

What was the final score of Maritimo vs CD Feirense?

Maritimo 3-2 CD Feirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo vs CD Feirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 47%, draw 28%, CD Feirense 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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