BG Pathum United 1-3 Thai Port FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 27 Apr 2024

BG Pathum United
1-3 HT 1-2
Thai Port FC
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Thailand - 1st Division – 2023/2024

BG Pathum United vs Thai Port FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.33
Over 2.5
59%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
8%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.0pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+2.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
39%
+2.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
61%
-2.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.8pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

BG Pathum United v Thai Port FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Thai Port FC EU Bookmakers 37%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -18%
0.80/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.13
-28% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
283 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 75%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
24.5 Crosses 21.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

BG Pathum United vs Thai Port FC Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BG Pathum United
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Thai Port FC
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
0.98 xG 0.85
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 Passes 308
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Thai Port FC Thai Port FC 2-3 HT 2-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
22.01.2023 Thai Port FC Thai Port FC 2-1 HT 1-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
14.09.2022 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 4-2 HT 2-1 Thai Port FC Thai Port FC TAY
02.04.2022 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 2-1 HT 2-0 Thai Port FC Thai Port FC TAY
20.11.2021 Thai Port FC Thai Port FC 1-0 HT 1-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY

BG Pathum United 1-3 Thai Port FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BG Pathum United
1-3
AWAY Thai Port FC
2.54 xG 2.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
373 Passes 272
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 20
32 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH BG Pathum United vs Thai Port FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thai Port FC saw off BG Pathum United 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Thai Port FC found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, BG Pathum United had 58% of the ball to Thai Port FC's 42%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 2.54 to 2.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, BG Pathum United had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for BG Pathum United and 1.60 for Thai Port FC.

What was the final score of BG Pathum United vs Thai Port FC?

BG Pathum United 1-3 Thai Port FC in the Thailand - 1st Division on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BG Pathum United vs Thai Port FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split BG Pathum United 38%, draw 26%, Thai Port FC 35%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (BG Pathum United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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