Birmingham 4-0 Mansfield Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
56%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
21%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.18
Over
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
22%
4.14
2-3
40%
1.85
4-5
26%
2.87
6+
12%
8.43
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.14 — our 22% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Birmingham win — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
69%
-13.2pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.3pp
21%
Away Win
12%
+8.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.9pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Mansfield Town EU Bookmakers 15%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
2.14/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.12
-1% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -60% / +16%
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
444 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 212 · 68%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
26.7 Crosses 20.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Mansfield Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.85 xG 0.89
72% Ball Possession 28%
19 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
495 Passes 134
83% Pass Accuracy 59%
30 Box Touches 12
32 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
4-0
AWAY Mansfield Town
2.19 xG 0.34
74% Ball Possession 26%
18 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
624 Passes 165
90% Pass Accuracy 68%
39 Box Touches 7
25 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Mansfield Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham ran out comfortable winners over Mansfield Town 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Birmingham had 74% of the ball to Mansfield Town's 26%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 2.19 to 0.34.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Mansfield Town?

Birmingham 4-0 Mansfield Town in the England - 1st Division on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Mansfield Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 56%, draw 24%, Mansfield Town 21%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN1 More England - 1st Division
27 Apr 2025
16:00 Stevenage vs Rotherham United Analysis →