Mansfield Town 1-1 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.48
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
48%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
2.1
Over
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
27%
4.04
2-3
43%
1.84
4-5
21%
3.1
6+
9%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.04 — our 27% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
7.55
1/2
9%
21.85
1/X
8%
15.2
X/1
12%
10.2
X/2
12%
4.03
X/X
9%
5.54
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.08
2/X
8%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
19%
+7.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
48%
Away Win
57%
-9.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.8pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mansfield Town EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 61%
-39% / -39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.22/2.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.00
+26% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -21%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
229 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
Crosses 19.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mansfield Town
1-1
AWAY Birmingham
0.89 xG 1.85
28% Ball Possession 72%
10 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
134 Passes 495
59% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mansfield Town vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mansfield Town and Birmingham couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Birmingham at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Mansfield Town had 28% of the ball to Birmingham's 72%, shots finished 10-19, expected goals 0.89 to 1.85.

What was the final score of Mansfield Town vs Birmingham?

Mansfield Town 1-1 Birmingham in the England - 1st Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mansfield Town vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Mansfield Town 27%, draw 25%, Birmingham 48%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Birmingham), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Birmingham) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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