Catanzaro 1-3 Palermo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 27 Apr 2025

Catanzaro
1-3 HT 0-2
Palermo
📅27/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2024/2025

Catanzaro vs Palermo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
41%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.37
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.4
6+ Goals
10%
12.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.67
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
8%
12.35
X/1
11%
5.8
X/2
16%
6.13
X/X
13%
4.58
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
27.5
2/2
19%
4.01
2/X
4%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
38%
-4.6pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
41%
Away Win
34%
+7.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.3pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Catanzaro v Palermo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Palermo EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -3%
1.15/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.29
+39% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
315 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 78%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
21.6 Crosses 18.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Catanzaro vs Palermo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Catanzaro
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Palermo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.27 xG 1.46
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
444 Passes 287
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 33
14 Crosses 39
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.12.2024 Palermo Palermo 1-2 HT 1-1 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
26.01.2024 Catanzaro Catanzaro 1-1 HT 1-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
01.12.2023 Palermo Palermo 1-2 HT 0-1 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
24.01.2022 Catanzaro Catanzaro 0-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTC
03.11.2021 Catanzaro Catanzaro 1-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTCK
19.09.2021 Palermo Palermo 0-0 HT 0-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTC

Catanzaro 1-3 Palermo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Catanzaro
1-3
AWAY Palermo
1.49 xG 1.56
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
425 Passes 336
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Catanzaro vs Palermo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palermo saw off Catanzaro 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Palermo as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Catanzaro had 55% of the ball to Palermo's 45%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.49 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Catanzaro had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Catanzaro and 0.50 for Palermo.

What was the final score of Catanzaro vs Palermo?

Catanzaro 1-3 Palermo in the Italy - Serie B on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Catanzaro vs Palermo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Catanzaro 33%, draw 26%, Palermo 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palermo), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palermo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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