River Plate 2-1 Boca Juniors — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.48
Over 2.5
34%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.19
No
64%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.12
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
5.39
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.71
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.2
X/1
17%
4.22
X/2
13%
8.18
X/X
16%
3.7
2/1
4%
32.5
2/2
10%
7.42
2/X
6%
16.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.5pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.0pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.6pp
66%
Under 2.5
64%
+1.9pp
34%
Over 2.5
36%
-1.9pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.6pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME River Plate EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Boca Juniors EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.66/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.24
-2% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
291 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 73%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
19.6 Crosses 14.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 4.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME River Plate
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Boca Juniors
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.33 xG 0.77
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
298 Passes 239
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 4
21.09.2024 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 0-1 HT 0-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
21.04.2024 River Plate River Plate 2-3 HT 1-1 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
25.02.2024 River Plate River Plate 1-1 HT 0-0 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
01.10.2023 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 0-2 HT 0-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
07.05.2023 River Plate River Plate 1-0 HT 0-0 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
11.09.2022 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 1-0 HT 0-0 River Plate River Plate ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME River Plate
2-1
AWAY Boca Juniors
1.38 xG 1.49
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
276 Passes 340
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 15
6 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH River Plate vs Boca Juniors
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

River Plate nicked a narrow win over Boca Juniors 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had River Plate as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, River Plate had 45% of the ball to Boca Juniors's 55%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.38 to 1.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, River Plate had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for River Plate and 0.83 for Boca Juniors.

What was the final score of River Plate vs Boca Juniors?

River Plate 2-1 Boca Juniors in the Argentina - Premier League on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for River Plate vs Boca Juniors?

Before kick-off our model rated a River Plate win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split River Plate 45%, draw 28%, Boca Juniors 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (River Plate) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (River Plate) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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