Kapfenberger SV 2-1 Ried — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.71
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
52%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.1
Over Pick
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.89
2-3
40%
1.82
4-5
25%
2.97
6+
11%
9.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
9.15
1/2
7%
21.35
1/X
7%
17.8
X/1
10%
11.55
X/2
20%
4.1
X/X
8%
6.16
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
24%
1.93
2/X
8%
15.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.35 — our 7% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
18%
+7.7pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.0pp
52%
Away Win
60%
-7.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.4pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kapfenberger SV EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Ried EU Bookmakers 64%
+3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +4%
1.39/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.32/0.85
+21% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +34%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
163 · 54% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 69%
11.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
11.2 Crosses 25.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kapfenberger SV
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Ried
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
25.10.2024 Ried Ried 3-0 HT 0-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
05.04.2024 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 1-3 HT 1-2 Ried Ried AU2
17.09.2023 Ried Ried 2-0 HT 1-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
14.06.2020 Ried Ried 5-0 HT 2-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
30.08.2019 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 2-3 HT 0-2 Ried Ried AU2
08.03.2019 Ried Ried 0-0 HT 0-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kapfenberger SV
2-1
AWAY Ried
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kapfenberger SV vs Ried
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kapfenberger SV squeezed past Ried 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Ried at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Kapfenberger SV had 41% of the ball to Ried's 59%, shots finished 10-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ried led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Kapfenberger SV and 2.67 for Ried.

What was the final score of Kapfenberger SV vs Ried?

Kapfenberger SV 2-1 Ried in the Austria - 1st Division on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kapfenberger SV vs Ried?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ried win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Kapfenberger SV 26%, draw 22%, Ried 52%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ried) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ried) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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