Gnistan 1-2 KuPS Kuopio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 27 Apr 2025

Gnistan
1-2 HT 1-0
KuPS Kuopio
📅27/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2025

Gnistan vs KuPS Kuopio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.41
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
14.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.32
1/2
7%
25.0
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.8
X/1
14%
7.26
X/2
14%
4.88
X/X
9%
4.76
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
19%
2.87
2/X
6%
13.05
Value flag · 1/X at 13.8 — our 10% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
28%
+6.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-4.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gnistan v KuPS Kuopio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 49%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.08/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/0.90
-8% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
259 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
19.5 Crosses 20.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.6

Gnistan vs KuPS Kuopio Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
0W-1D-2L
AWAY KuPS Kuopio
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.27 xG 0.80
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
276 Passes 451
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
32 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.07.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 3-1 HT 3-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
19.05.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 0-0 HT 0-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
20.03.2021 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 5-0 HT 3-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİK

Gnistan 1-2 KuPS Kuopio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gnistan
1-2
AWAY KuPS Kuopio
0.87 xG 1.88
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 9
274 Passes 378
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 44
21 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gnistan vs KuPS Kuopio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KuPS Kuopio edged past Gnistan 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; KuPS Kuopio found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Gnistan had 44% of the ball to KuPS Kuopio's 56%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 0.87 to 1.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, KuPS Kuopio led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Gnistan and 2.67 for KuPS Kuopio.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs KuPS Kuopio?

Gnistan 1-2 KuPS Kuopio in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs KuPS Kuopio?

Before kick-off our model rated an KuPS Kuopio win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 35%, draw 25%, KuPS Kuopio 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KuPS Kuopio), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FİN More Finland - Veikkausliiga
27 Apr 2025
18:30 IFK Mariehamn vs Ilves Tampere Analysis →