IFK Mariehamn 3-2 Ilves Tampere — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.4
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
51%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.78
2-3 Goals
43%
1.87
4-5 Goals
21%
3.36
6+ Goals
12%
11.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
11.1
1/2
9%
22.9
1/X
7%
19.45
X/1
5%
13.0
X/2
15%
3.94
X/X
9%
5.99
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
27%
1.82
2/X
11%
16.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
15%
+6.9pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.0pp
51%
Away Win
64%
-12.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.4pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 69%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
0.82/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.31
-13% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / -20%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
248 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 464 · 82%
13.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.5
12.6 Crosses 11.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Ilves Tampere
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.83 xG 1.64
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
331 Passes 469
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.08.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-0 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
28.04.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-1 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
27.09.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-1 HT 1-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
15.07.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 0-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
05.04.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 1-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
02.10.2022 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-3 HT 1-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
3-2
AWAY Ilves Tampere
1.40 xG 2.04
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 25
5 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 11
253 Passes 414
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 34
11 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs Ilves Tampere
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Mariehamn edged past Ilves Tampere 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ilves Tampere at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 40% of the ball to Ilves Tampere's 60%, shots finished 13-25, expected goals 1.40 to 2.04 — on chances, Ilves Tampere could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ilves Tampere led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 1.33 for Ilves Tampere.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs Ilves Tampere?

IFK Mariehamn 3-2 Ilves Tampere in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs Ilves Tampere?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 22%, draw 27%, Ilves Tampere 51%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Ilves Tampere) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✓ Over 2.5
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