Changwon City 2-1 Ulsan Citizen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K3 League, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.8
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
51%
-9.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.2pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.8pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Changwon City EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Ulsan Citizen EU Bookmakers 26%
-4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +1%
1.26/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.18
-15% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Changwon City
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Ulsan Citizen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
07.09.2024 Changwon City Changwon City 1-0 HT 1-0 Ulsan Citizen Ulsan Citizen GK3L
23.06.2023 Changwon City Changwon City 1-2 HT 1-2 Ulsan Citizen Ulsan Citizen GK3L
11.03.2023 Ulsan Citizen Ulsan Citizen 3-0 HT 1-0 Changwon City Changwon City GK3L
17.09.2022 Ulsan Citizen Ulsan Citizen 0-2 HT 0-2 Changwon City Changwon City GK3L
11.06.2022 Changwon City Changwon City 0-0 HT 0-0 Ulsan Citizen Ulsan Citizen GK3L
13.05.2022 Changwon City Changwon City 1-0 HT 0-0 Ulsan Citizen Ulsan Citizen GK3L
POST-MATCH Changwon City vs Ulsan Citizen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Changwon City edged past Ulsan Citizen 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Changwon City as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Changwon City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Changwon City and 0.83 for Ulsan Citizen.

What was the final score of Changwon City vs Ulsan Citizen?

Changwon City 2-1 Ulsan Citizen in the South Kore - K3 League on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Changwon City vs Ulsan Citizen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Changwon City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Changwon City 41%, draw 30%, Ulsan Citizen 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Changwon City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Changwon City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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