Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.32
2-3 Goals
46%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.43
6+ Goals
8%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 28% vs market 24.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.22
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.05
X/1
13%
4.32
X/2 EV+ ✗
12%
9.81
X/X
10%
5.03
2/1
6%
23.75
2/2
14%
7.89
2/X
6%
15.7
Value flag · X/2 at 9.81 — our 12% vs market 7.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-7.7pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+9.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.4pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 23%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -12%
2.28/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.49
+61% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
401 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
20.8 Crosses 18.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Willem II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.19 xG 1.39
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
308 Passes 334
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 Willem II Willem II 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
13.03.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
22.10.2021 Willem II Willem II 1-1 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
16.05.2021 Willem II Willem II 2-1 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
05.12.2020 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 3-2 HT 3-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
21.12.2019 Willem II Willem II 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1-0
AWAY Willem II
1.59 xG 0.29
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
334 Passes 335
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 9
30 Crosses 23
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard edged past Willem II 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fortuna Sittard as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 51% of the ball to Willem II's 49%, shots finished 13-4, expected goals 1.59 to 0.29 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fortuna Sittard's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortuna Sittard had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 0.83 for Willem II.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II?

Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Sittard win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 47%, draw 23%, Willem II 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortuna Sittard), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fortuna Sittard) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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