Heerenveen 1-0 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
2.99
6+ Goals
11%
9.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.97
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
12%
5.24
X/2
12%
7.0
X/X
13%
5.29
2/1
8%
23.3
2/2
16%
4.64
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-3.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+3.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.6pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
1.56/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.53
-14% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +61%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
400 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 77%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
20.6 Crosses 17.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.26 xG 0.93
50% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
387 Passes 371
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.10.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-0 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
10.03.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
07.10.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-1 HT 1-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
06.05.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-3 HT 1-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
04.09.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
13.02.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
1-0
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.58 xG 0.62
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 5
311 Passes 279
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heerenveen edged past NEC Nijmegen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Heerenveen made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Heerenveen had 50% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 50%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.58 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Heerenveen and 1.50 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?

Heerenveen 1-0 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 40%, draw 26%, NEC Nijmegen 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heerenveen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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