Ajax 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.41
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
14%
8.11
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.81
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
16.55
X/1
17%
4.07
X/2
10%
12.6
X/X
10%
6.76
2/1
7%
20.45
2/2
8%
9.9
2/X
7%
18.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
63%
-10.0pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.0pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+7.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.6pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +18%
1.98/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.85
-6% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +9%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
439 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
20.0 Crosses 15.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.50 xG 0.73
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
570 Passes 240
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
45 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
22.12.2024 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
17.03.2024 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 2-2 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
09.12.2023 Ajax Ajax 2-1 HT 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
19.02.2023 Ajax Ajax 4-0 HT 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
21.08.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
09.04.2022 Ajax Ajax 2-1 HT 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
1-1
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
3.40 xG 1.13
66% Ball Possession 34%
28 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 4
513 Passes 239
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
53 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax and Sparta Rotterdam shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Ajax at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ajax had 66% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 34%, shots finished 28-14, expected goals 3.40 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Ajax and 0.67 for Sparta Rotterdam.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Ajax 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Ajax 53%, draw 23%, Sparta Rotterdam 23%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✗ Over 2.5
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