27/04/2025
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-0
2nd Score
1-0
JFK Ventspils vs Augsdaugava Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
31%
4-5
35%
6+
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
5%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
JFK Ventspils win — 66% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
76%
14%
Draw
16%
20%
Away Win
8%
36%
Under 2.5
42%
64%
Over 2.5
58%
55%
BTTS Yes
40%
45%
BTTS No
60%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
JFK Ventspils v Augsdaugava — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
JFK Ventspils
EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY
Augsdaugava
EU Bookmakers 11%
+13% /
+13%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+2% /
+2%
2.15/0.17
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.34/1.66
-18%
/
+150%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-64%
/
+58%
59%
Ball Possession
41%
18
Total Shots
9
7
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
4
473 · 84%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
236 · 74%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
JFK Ventspils vs Augsdaugava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
JFK Ventspils beat Augsdaugava 2-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had JFK Ventspils as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of JFK Ventspils vs Augsdaugava?
JFK Ventspils 2-0 Augsdaugava in the Latvia - 1st Division on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for JFK Ventspils vs Augsdaugava?
Before kick-off our model rated a JFK Ventspils win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split JFK Ventspils 66%, draw 14%, Augsdaugava 20%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (JFK Ventspils) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (JFK Ventspils)
✗ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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27 Apr 2025