Smiltene 0-4 Leevon / PPK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.27
Draw
18%
3.94
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.23
Over
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
58%
1.55
No
42%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
42%
4-5
23%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
10%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
40%
+7.6pp
18%
Draw
22%
-4.0pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-3.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.8pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smiltene EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Leevon / PPK EU Bookmakers 43%
-37% / -37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
0.66/2.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.70
-61% / -55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / -26%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
334 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smiltene
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Leevon / PPK
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
11.08.2024 Leevon / PPK Leevon / PPK 2-2 HT 0-2 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
13.04.2024 Smiltene Smiltene 0-2 HT 0-1 Leevon / PPK Leevon / PPK LET1
POST-MATCH Smiltene vs Leevon / PPK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leevon / PPK ran out comfortable winners over Smiltene 4-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Smiltene at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Leevon / PPK led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Smiltene and 2.00 for Leevon / PPK.

What was the final score of Smiltene vs Leevon / PPK?

Smiltene 0-4 Leevon / PPK in the Latvia - 1st Division on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smiltene vs Leevon / PPK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Smiltene win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Smiltene 48%, draw 18%, Leevon / PPK 35%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Smiltene), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Smiltene) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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