Radomiak Radom 2-2 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 27 Apr 2025

Radomiak Radom
2-2 HT 0-2
Lech Poznan
📅27/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.17
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.95
Over
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No Pick
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
26%
3.37
2-3
41%
1.78
4-5
22%
3.27
6+
11%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.37 — our 26% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.37
1/2
6%
24.2
1/X
6%
13.8
X/1
11%
7.41
X/2
15%
4.86
X/X
9%
4.92
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
20%
2.8
2/X
10%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 52% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
28%
+6.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.8pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Radomiak Radom v Lech Poznan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Radomiak Radom EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 49%
-20% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.42/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.17
-8% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +11%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
270 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 81%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
19.5 Crosses 18.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Radomiak Radom
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.03 xG 1.53
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
266 Passes 352
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.10.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-1 HT 1-0 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom POL
16.12.2023 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 2-2 HT 0-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
30.07.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom POL
24.04.2023 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 1-1 HT 1-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
09.10.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-0 HT 1-0 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom POL
11.12.2021 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 2-1 HT 2-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL

Radomiak Radom 2-2 Lech Poznan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Radomiak Radom
2-2
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.56 xG 0.60
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 1
249 Passes 332
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
37 Box Touches 14
37 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Radomiak Radom and Lech Poznan couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Lech Poznan at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Radomiak Radom had 47% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 53%, shots finished 15-4, expected goals 1.56 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.50 for Lech Poznan.

What was the final score of Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?

Radomiak Radom 2-2 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Radomiak Radom 35%, draw 24%, Lech Poznan 41%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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