Korona Kielce 3-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 27 Apr 2025

Korona Kielce
3-1 HT 1-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅27/04/2025 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
1.9
Over
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
28%
3.27
2-3
39%
1.77
4-5
22%
3.34
6+
11%
12.65
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.27 — our 28% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+5.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-4.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Korona Kielce v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 46%
+5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +0%
1.28/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.63
+4% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -13%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
281 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 79%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.0
20.5 Crosses 14.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5

Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Korona Kielce
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.33 xG 2.12
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
281 Passes 384
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.10.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-1 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
11.05.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 HT 2-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
28.02.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POLK
11.11.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-2 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
15.04.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-1 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
02.10.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-1 HT 1-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL

Korona Kielce 3-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Korona Kielce
3-1
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.04 xG 2.07
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
205 Passes 409
72% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Korona Kielce beat Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Korona Kielce found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Korona Kielce had 37% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 63%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.04 to 2.07 — on chances, Jagiellonia Bialystok could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Korona Kielce and 2.50 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Korona Kielce 3-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Korona Kielce 36%, draw 26%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 38%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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