Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-1 Korona Kielce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.1
Over 2.5
60%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.09
6+ Goals
14%
9.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.23
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
23%
4.22
X/2
8%
9.22
X/X
7%
5.37
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.3
2/2
12%
6.65
2/X
9%
14.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-1.8pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.5pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
44%
-4.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
56%
+4.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.6pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 25%
-7% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.95/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.40
+6% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
393 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 77%
32.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
23.1 Crosses 20.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Korona Kielce
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.33 xG 1.40
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
389 Passes 279
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.05.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 HT 2-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
28.02.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POLK
11.11.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-2 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
15.04.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-1 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
02.10.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-1 HT 1-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
16.02.2020 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 0-0 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
3-1
AWAY Korona Kielce
1.28 xG 1.06
58% Ball Possession 42%
8 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
439 Passes 289
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok beat Korona Kielce 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 58% of the ball to Korona Kielce's 42%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 1.28 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.00 for Korona Kielce.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-1 Korona Kielce in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Korona Kielce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 52%, draw 22%, Korona Kielce 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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