Stal Mielec 2-2 Zaglebie Lubin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.31
6+ Goals
11%
11.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.65 — our 28% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.22
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1 EV+ ✗
21%
5.17
X/2
7%
6.24
X/X
9%
4.77
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
19%
4.2
2/X
10%
12.8
Value flag · X/1 at 5.17 — our 21% vs market 14.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
31%
Away Win
32%
-1.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.6pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 36%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +13%
1.68/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.66
+9% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
23.8 Crosses 17.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Mielec
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.70 xG 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
363 Passes 353
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2024 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
18.09.2023 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 4-2 HT 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
19.05.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 HT 2-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
04.11.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 3-0 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
08.04.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
18.10.2021 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 4-2 HT 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Mielec
2-2
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
2.33 xG 0.95
43% Ball Possession 57%
24 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 0
242 Passes 355
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
36 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stal Mielec and Zaglebie Lubin shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Stal Mielec at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Stal Mielec had 43% of the ball to Zaglebie Lubin's 57%, shots finished 24-11, expected goals 2.33 to 0.95.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stal Mielec had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Stal Mielec and 1.50 for Zaglebie Lubin.

What was the final score of Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Stal Mielec 2-2 Zaglebie Lubin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Mielec vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stal Mielec win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Stal Mielec 44%, draw 25%, Zaglebie Lubin 31%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Stal Mielec) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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