Legia Varşova 4-1 Katowice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
28%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.42
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 29% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.05
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.15
X/1
20%
3.74
X/2
12%
10.3
X/X
13%
5.39
2/1
8%
23.15
2/2
10%
8.23
2/X
5%
16.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
58%
-10.2pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.9pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+9.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Katowice EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.91/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.55
+18% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
410 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 74%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
23.0 Crosses 20.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 0.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
4-1
AWAY Katowice
4.34 xG 0.91
62% Ball Possession 38%
29 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 3
473 Passes 266
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
63 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Katowice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova cruised past Katowice 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Legia Varşova as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 62% of the ball to Katowice's 38%, shots finished 29-8, expected goals 4.34 to 0.91.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Katowice?

Legia Varşova 4-1 Katowice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Katowice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 48%, draw 24%, Katowice 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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