Moreirense 1-1 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.87
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.91
6+ Goals
9%
17.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 29% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.69
1/2
9%
32.5
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
12%
5.61
X/2
11%
6.21
X/X
12%
4.12
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
12%
4.32
2/X
10%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+1.2pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.0pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.7pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreirense EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 36%
+1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.22/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.25
-8% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +11%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
265 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
17.6 Crosses 17.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreirense
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Nacional
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.29 xG 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
290 Passes 269
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.12.2024 Nacional Nacional 1-0 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
18.03.2023 Nacional Nacional 0-2 HT 0-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR2
09.10.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 3-1 HT 3-1 Nacional Nacional POR2
06.05.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 2-2 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POR
17.01.2021 Nacional Nacional 0-1 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
28.01.2019 Moreirense Moreirense 2-1 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moreirense
1-1
AWAY Nacional
0.49 xG 0.52
58% Ball Possession 42%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
368 Passes 246
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Moreirense vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense and Nacional shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 30% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Moreirense had 58% of the ball to Nacional's 42%, shots finished 8-18, expected goals 0.49 to 0.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Moreirense had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Moreirense and 0.83 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Moreirense vs Nacional?

Moreirense 1-1 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Moreirense win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 39%, draw 30%, Nacional 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Moreirense), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Moreirense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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