Vitoria Guimaraes 3-0 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 27 Apr 2025

Vitoria Guimaraes
3-0 HT 3-0
Rio Ave
📅27/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Rio Ave Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.47
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.8
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
17.3
X/1
15%
3.91
X/2
11%
13.15
X/X
7%
6.12
2/1
7%
22.9
2/2
8%
11.2
2/X
8%
19.85
Value flag · 1/X at 17.3 — our 10% vs market 3.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
64%
-12.9pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.8pp
24%
Away Win
15%
+9.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.4pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria Guimaraes v Rio Ave — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 18%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -16%
1.57/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.61
+0% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +0%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
393 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 76%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
24.1 Crosses 13.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Rio Ave Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Rio Ave
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.53 xG 0.65
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
385 Passes 289
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.12.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-2 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
04.05.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
23.12.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
14.05.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
07.01.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
13.02.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-3 HT 0-2 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR

Vitoria Guimaraes 3-0 Rio Ave — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
3-0
AWAY Rio Ave
1.78 xG 0.48
59% Ball Possession 41%
24 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 1
389 Passes 259
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Rio Ave
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes cruised past Rio Ave 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 59% of the ball to Rio Ave's 41%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 1.78 to 0.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.17 for Rio Ave.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Rio Ave?

Vitoria Guimaraes 3-0 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Premier League on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Rio Ave?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 51%, draw 25%, Rio Ave 24%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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