Hegelmann II 2-1 Lietava Jonava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 27 Jun 2026

📅27/06/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.65
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
57%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
6%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
32%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
19%
+2.4pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.2pp
57%
Away Win
58%
-1.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.2pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hegelmann II EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Lietava Jonava EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.33/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.41/1.09
+30% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -14%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 0.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hegelmann II
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Lietava Jonava
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2025 Hegelmann II 1-2 HT 1-1 Lietava Jonava Lietava Jonava LIT1
26.04.2025 Lietava Jonava Lietava Jonava 1-1 Hegelmann II LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hegelmann II
2-1
AWAY Lietava Jonava
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hegelmann II vs Lietava Jonava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hegelmann II squeezed past Lietava Jonava 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Lietava Jonava at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Hegelmann II had 48% of the ball to Lietava Jonava's 52%, shots finished 14-14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lietava Jonava led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hegelmann II and 1.50 for Lietava Jonava.

What was the final score of Hegelmann II vs Lietava Jonava?

Hegelmann II 2-1 Lietava Jonava in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 27/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hegelmann II vs Lietava Jonava?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lietava Jonava win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Hegelmann II 21%, draw 22%, Lietava Jonava 57%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lietava Jonava) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lietava Jonava) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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