Elversberg 1-1 Viktoria Köln — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 27 Jul 2024

📅27/07/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.57
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.38
Over 2.5
51%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.95
4-5 Goals
26%
2.77
6+ Goals
10%
7.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.97 — our 25% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
59%
-13.7pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.5pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+8.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.0pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elversberg EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Viktoria Köln EU Bookmakers 23%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
3.29/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.77
+67% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
382 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elversberg
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Viktoria Köln
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.04.2023 Elversberg Elversberg 3-2 HT 2-1 Viktoria Köln Viktoria Köln AL3
15.10.2022 Viktoria Köln Viktoria Köln 0-2 HT 0-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elversberg
1-1
AWAY Viktoria Köln
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Elversberg vs Viktoria Köln
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elversberg and Viktoria Köln couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Elversberg at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Elversberg had 55% of the ball to Viktoria Köln's 45%, shots finished 11-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Elversberg had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Elversberg and 1.00 for Viktoria Köln.

What was the final score of Elversberg vs Viktoria Köln?

Elversberg 1-1 Viktoria Köln in the Friendlies on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elversberg vs Viktoria Köln?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elversberg win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Elversberg 45%, draw 26%, Viktoria Köln 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Elversberg), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Elversberg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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