27/07/2024
·
12:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-2
2nd Score
1-2
Montpellier vs Southampton Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Half Time / Full Time
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.3
— our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
26%
Draw
24%
44%
Away Win
47%
45%
Under 2.5
42%
55%
Over 2.5
58%
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
47%
BTTS No
40%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Montpellier v Southampton — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Montpellier
EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY
Southampton
EU Bookmakers 51%
+50% /
+50%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+20% /
+20%
2.78/0.89
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
3.21/1.16
+103%
/
+60%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+101%
/
+9%
45%
Ball Possession
55%
13
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
6
319 · 77%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
401 · 82%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Montpellier vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Southampton got the better of Montpellier 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
As we said in the preview, our model had Southampton as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Montpellier vs Southampton?
Montpellier 1-3 Southampton in the Friendlies on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Southampton?
Before kick-off our model rated an Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 31%, draw 26%, Southampton 44%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Southampton), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Southampton)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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HAZ
More Friendlies
27 Jul 2024