Malaga 0-1 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 27 Jul 2024

📅27/07/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
2.91
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.01
6+ Goals
11%
18.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 29% vs market 28.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
29%
+4.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
40%
Away Win
44%
-4.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.7pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malaga EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 48%
-28% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +41% / +41%
0.54/2.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.42/0.00
-60% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% /
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
264 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malaga
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Almeria
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.86 xG 1.37
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
330 Passes 344
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.07.2023 Almeria Almeria 0-1 Malaga Malaga HAZ
12.02.2022 Malaga Malaga 0-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
04.09.2021 Almeria Almeria 2-0 HT 0-0 Malaga Malaga İS2
30.03.2021 Malaga Malaga 0-3 HT 0-2 Almeria Almeria İS2
13.12.2020 Almeria Almeria 3-1 HT 1-1 Malaga Malaga İS2
20.07.2020 Almeria Almeria 0-0 HT 0-0 Malaga Malaga İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malaga
0-1
AWAY Almeria
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Malaga vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria squeezed past Malaga 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 27% / 40% — and on the day Almeria made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Malaga had 53% of the ball to Almeria's 47%, shots finished 12-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Malaga and 1.50 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Malaga vs Almeria?

Malaga 0-1 Almeria in the Friendlies on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malaga vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated an Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Malaga 33%, draw 27%, Almeria 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almeria), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Almeria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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