Motagua 4-2 Lobos UPNFM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 27 Jul 2024

📅27/07/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.45
Draw
18%
4.08
Away
26%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
1.95
Over 2.5
61%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.96
No
45%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
33%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
65%
-8.5pp
18%
Draw
21%
-3.2pp
26%
Away Win
14%
+11.8pp
39%
Under 2.5
48%
-8.7pp
61%
Over 2.5
52%
+8.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.0pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 17%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
2.03/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.87
+3% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Lobos UPNFM
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
6 Corners 10
15.04.2024 Motagua Motagua 4-0 HT 2-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
19.02.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-2 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
09.11.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-4 HT 1-3 Motagua Motagua HON
31.07.2023 Motagua Motagua 1-1 HT 0-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
02.03.2023 Motagua Motagua 4-3 HT 2-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
22.01.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-1 HT 0-1 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua got the better of Lobos UPNFM 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Motagua as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motagua had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Motagua and 1.17 for Lobos UPNFM.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM?

Motagua 4-2 Lobos UPNFM in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Motagua 56%, draw 18%, Lobos UPNFM 26%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motagua), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Motagua) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →