Motagua 4-0 Lobos UPNFM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 15 Apr 2024

📅15/04/2024 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.34
Draw
28%
4.49
Away
19%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.91
Over 2.5
38%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.16
No
62%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
70%
-16.5pp
28%
Draw
19%
+8.9pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+7.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
48%
+13.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
52%
-13.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.1pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 14%
-5% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
2.13/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.22
-3% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
431 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Lobos UPNFM
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 2
19.02.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-2 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
09.11.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-4 HT 1-3 Motagua Motagua HON
31.07.2023 Motagua Motagua 1-1 HT 0-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
02.03.2023 Motagua Motagua 4-3 HT 2-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
22.01.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-1 HT 0-1 Motagua Motagua HON
21.10.2022 Motagua Motagua 2-2 HT 1-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua ran out comfortable winners over Lobos UPNFM 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Motagua as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (62%) landed while under 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motagua had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Motagua and 1.50 for Lobos UPNFM.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM?

Motagua 4-0 Lobos UPNFM in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Motagua 54%, draw 28%, Lobos UPNFM 19%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motagua), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Motagua) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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