Leones Negros Udeg 1-1 CD Tapatio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 27 Jul 2024

📅27/07/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
32%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
50%
-7.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+6.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.2pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Tapatio EU Bookmakers 29%
+16% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +22%
2.16/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.32
+41% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leones Negros Udeg
4W-1D-1L
AWAY CD Tapatio
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
23.02.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-0 HT 1-0 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
12.10.2023 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 2-4 HT 1-3 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
13.03.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-3 HT 1-1 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
01.08.2022 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 0-2 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
11.04.2022 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 1-1 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
16.09.2021 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-0 HT 1-0 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
POST-MATCH Leones Negros Udeg vs CD Tapatio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leones Negros Udeg and CD Tapatio shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Leones Negros Udeg at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Leones Negros Udeg and 1.00 for CD Tapatio.

What was the final score of Leones Negros Udeg vs CD Tapatio?

Leones Negros Udeg 1-1 CD Tapatio in the Mexico - Primera A on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leones Negros Udeg vs CD Tapatio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Leones Negros Udeg 42%, draw 26%, CD Tapatio 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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