Venados 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 27 Jul 2024

Venados
1-1 HT 0-1
Tepatitlán de Morelos
📅27/07/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera A – 2024/2025

Venados vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.47
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
18%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-6.9pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.0pp
18%
Away Win
15%
+2.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Venados v Tepatitlán de Morelos — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venados EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 18%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
2.13/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.79
+19% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 3.6

Venados vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Venados
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
The Meetings
19.01.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-5 HT 0-2 Venados Venados MEK2
28.09.2023 Venados Venados 5-1 HT 2-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
05.01.2023 Venados Venados 1-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
20.10.2022 Venados Venados 4-2 HT 4-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
16.09.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
24.03.2022 Venados Venados 0-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
POST-MATCH Venados vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Venados and Tepatitlán de Morelos couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Venados carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Venados had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Venados and 0.67 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of Venados vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Venados 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venados vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Venados win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Venados 57%, draw 25%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Venados), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Venados) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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