CA Penarol 1-0 Defensor Sporting — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 27 Jul 2024

📅27/07/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
31%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.71
Over 2.5
51%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.5pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.3pp
31%
Away Win
21%
+9.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
55%
-5.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
45%
+5.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.1pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 24%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -10%
1.55/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.34
-5% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Defensor Sporting
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
08.10.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 1-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
23.07.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
26.02.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-2 HT 1-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
08.08.2022 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-3 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
14.02.2022 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-1 HT 0-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
1-0
AWAY Defensor Sporting
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Defensor Sporting
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol nicked a narrow win over Defensor Sporting 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, CA Penarol had 57% of the ball to Defensor Sporting's 43%, shots finished 11-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for CA Penarol and 1.17 for Defensor Sporting.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?

CA Penarol 1-0 Defensor Sporting in the Uruguay - Premier League on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 47%, draw 22%, Defensor Sporting 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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