Defensor Sporting 0-2 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
39%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.71
Over 2.5
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+7.9pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
39%
Away Win
45%
-6.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-2.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+2.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.7pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 49%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
1.35/2.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.05
+26% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
285 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensor Sporting
2W-1D-3L
AWAY CA Penarol
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 1-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
23.07.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
26.02.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-2 HT 1-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
08.08.2022 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-3 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
14.02.2022 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-1 HT 0-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
28.01.2021 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-2 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensor Sporting
0-2
AWAY CA Penarol
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Defensor Sporting vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol beat Defensor Sporting 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 26% / 39%) promised a tight game; CA Penarol found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Defensor Sporting had 55% of the ball to CA Penarol's 45%, shots finished 11-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Defensor Sporting and 1.67 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs CA Penarol?

Defensor Sporting 0-2 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 35%, draw 26%, CA Penarol 39%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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