Gimnasia La Plata 1-0 Independiente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 27 Jul 2025

📅27/07/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.75
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
45%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.45
Over 2.5
39%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.29
No
60%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2.05
2-3 Goals
36%
1.81
4-5 Goals
18%
6.02
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.21
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
6%
16.75
X/1
11%
7.85
X/2
18%
4.24
X/X
14%
3.54
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
19%
2.84
2/X
8%
15.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
23%
+3.3pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.8pp
45%
Away Win
46%
-1.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
65%
-4.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
35%
+4.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.7pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gimnasia La Plata EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente EU Bookmakers 50%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -19%
1.22/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.90
+29% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -4%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
252 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 76%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
21.0 Crosses 19.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gimnasia La Plata
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Independiente
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.78 xG 1.08
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
230 Passes 285
69% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.02.2025 Independiente Independiente 2-0 HT 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
22.11.2024 Independiente Independiente 1-0 HT 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
04.02.2024 Independiente Independiente 0-1 HT 0-1 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
02.09.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
08.07.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
04.09.2022 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 3-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gimnasia La Plata
1-0
AWAY Independiente
1.40 xG 1.03
24% Ball Possession 76%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
106 Passes 470
65% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Box Touches 31
16 Crosses 29
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gimnasia La Plata vs Independiente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gimnasia La Plata edged past Independiente 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Gimnasia La Plata had 24% of the ball to Independiente's 76%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 1.40 to 1.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gimnasia La Plata and 1.17 for Independiente.

What was the final score of Gimnasia La Plata vs Independiente?

Gimnasia La Plata 1-0 Independiente in the Argentina - Premier League on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gimnasia La Plata vs Independiente?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gimnasia La Plata 26%, draw 29%, Independiente 45%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Independiente) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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