Araz Nahçıvan 3-2 Sebail FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
36%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.88
No
46%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
48%
-9.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
36%
Away Win
25%
+11.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-2.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+2.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.4pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 29%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +7%
1.00/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.61
-37% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
310 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 196 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Araz Nahçıvan
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Sebail FK
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
6 Corners 4
21.04.2024 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 0-2 HT 0-1 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
17.02.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 2-2 HT 1-2 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
02.12.2023 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-1 HT 1-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
24.09.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-0 HT 1-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
POST-MATCH Araz Nahçıvan vs Sebail FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Araz Nahçıvan squeezed past Sebail FK 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Araz Nahçıvan made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sebail FK led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Araz Nahçıvan and 1.50 for Sebail FK.

What was the final score of Araz Nahçıvan vs Sebail FK?

Araz Nahçıvan 3-2 Sebail FK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Araz Nahçıvan vs Sebail FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Araz Nahçıvan win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Araz Nahçıvan 39%, draw 25%, Sebail FK 36%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Araz Nahçıvan), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Araz Nahçıvan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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