Gnistan 1-0 Oulu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 27 Sep 2024

Gnistan
1-0 HT 0-0
Oulu
📅27/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.21
Over 2.5
58%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.47
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
28%
2.92
6+ Goals
10%
8.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.4
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
12%
4.48
X/2
8%
8.27
X/X
10%
5.55
2/1
6%
21.45
2/2
16%
5.63
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.0pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.6pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Oulu EU Bookmakers 29%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -16%
1.68/0.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.88
+19% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -24%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
325 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 81%
31.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
25.3 Crosses 17.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Oulu
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.21 xG 0.80
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
226 Passes 300
63% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 2-0 HT 2-0 Oulu Oulu FİN
11.05.2024 Oulu Oulu 1-1 HT 1-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
17.10.2020 Gnistan Gnistan 1-2 HT 0-1 Oulu Oulu FİN2
27.06.2020 Oulu Oulu 2-0 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
19.08.2017 Oulu Oulu 1-2 HT 0-2 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
27.06.2017 Gnistan Gnistan 2-4 HT 1-3 Oulu Oulu FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gnistan
1-0
AWAY Oulu
0.79 xG 1.02
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
366 Passes 367
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gnistan vs Oulu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan squeezed past Oulu 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gnistan as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gnistan had 49% of the ball to Oulu's 51%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.79 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Oulu led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gnistan and 1.67 for Oulu.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs Oulu?

Gnistan 1-0 Oulu in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs Oulu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gnistan win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 46%, draw 24%, Oulu 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gnistan) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gnistan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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