Gnistan 2-0 Oulu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 18 Aug 2024

Gnistan
2-0 HT 2-0
Oulu
📅18/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.9
Over 2.5
55%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.34
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.54
6+ Goals
9%
14.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.74
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
13%
4.49
X/2
11%
7.2
X/X
10%
4.72
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
24.85
2/2
17%
5.3
2/X
7%
13.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 7% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-4.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.5pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+6.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Oulu EU Bookmakers 31%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -7%
1.71/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/1.39
+26% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 82%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
25.0 Crosses 18.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Oulu
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.38 xG 1.37
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
104 Passes 192
45% Pass Accuracy 56%
10 Box Touches 29
23 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 Oulu Oulu 1-1 HT 1-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
17.10.2020 Gnistan Gnistan 1-2 HT 0-1 Oulu Oulu FİN2
27.06.2020 Oulu Oulu 2-0 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
19.08.2017 Oulu Oulu 1-2 HT 0-2 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
27.06.2017 Gnistan Gnistan 2-4 HT 1-3 Oulu Oulu FİN2
29.04.2017 Oulu Oulu 1-0 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gnistan
2-0
AWAY Oulu
2.05 xG 0.23
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 1
347 Passes 408
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gnistan vs Oulu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan got the better of Oulu 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gnistan as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gnistan had 47% of the ball to Oulu's 53%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 2.05 to 0.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Oulu led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gnistan and 1.83 for Oulu.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs Oulu?

Gnistan 2-0 Oulu in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs Oulu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gnistan win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 42%, draw 24%, Oulu 34%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gnistan) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gnistan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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