Naxxar Lions 0-6 Hamrun Spartans — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.4
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
55%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.07
Over 2.5
44%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
1.88
No
64%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
38%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
15%
+6.1pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.7pp
55%
Away Win
64%
-8.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.8pp
36%
BTTS Yes
49%
-12.9pp
64%
BTTS No
51%
+12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naxxar Lions EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamrun Spartans EU Bookmakers 69%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +11%
0.55/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.11/0.49
-23% / +83% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +15%
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
302 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 433 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naxxar Lions
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Hamrun Spartans
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
4 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.02.2024 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 4-1 HT 2-1 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MLTP
23.09.2023 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 0-4 HT 0-2 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naxxar Lions
0-6
AWAY Hamrun Spartans
44% Ball Possession 56%
4 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Naxxar Lions vs Hamrun Spartans
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamrun Spartans ran out comfortable winners over Naxxar Lions 6-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-4. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hamrun Spartans as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 6-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (64%) landed while under 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Naxxar Lions had 44% of the ball to Hamrun Spartans's 56%, shots finished 4-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Hamrun Spartans led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Naxxar Lions and 4.00 for Hamrun Spartans.

What was the final score of Naxxar Lions vs Hamrun Spartans?

Naxxar Lions 0-6 Hamrun Spartans in the Malta - Premier League on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naxxar Lions vs Hamrun Spartans?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hamrun Spartans win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Naxxar Lions 21%, draw 23%, Hamrun Spartans 55%. The final score 0-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamrun Spartans), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hamrun Spartans) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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