Leeds United 2-2 Bournemouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 27 Sep 2025

Leeds United
2-2 HT 1-1
Bournemouth
📅27/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Leeds United vs Bournemouth Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.94
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
16.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 29% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.28
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
11%
6.12
X/2
13%
5.39
X/X
11%
4.28
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
19%
3.5
2/X
6%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.0pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.6pp
38%
Away Win
38%
+0.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leeds United v Bournemouth — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leeds United EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 42%
-12% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +6%
1.32/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/1.04
-39% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -21%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
281 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 78%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.7
22.5 Crosses 22.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Leeds United vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leeds United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Bournemouth
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.92 xG 1.71
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
314 Passes 333
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 22
30 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.04.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 4-1 HT 2-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNP
05.11.2022 Leeds United Leeds United 4-3 HT 1-2 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
20.01.2015 Leeds United Leeds United 1-0 HT 1-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNCL
16.09.2014 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-3 HT 1-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
25.03.2014 Bournemouth Bournemouth 4-1 HT 3-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
01.10.2013 Leeds United Leeds United 2-1 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNCL

Leeds United 2-2 Bournemouth — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leeds United
2-2
AWAY Bournemouth
1.84 xG 0.75
41% Ball Possession 59%
19 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
280 Passes 436
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
35 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leeds United vs Bournemouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leeds United and Bournemouth shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Leeds United had 41% of the ball to Bournemouth's 59%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.84 to 0.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leeds United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Leeds United and 2.17 for Bournemouth.

What was the final score of Leeds United vs Bournemouth?

Leeds United 2-2 Bournemouth in the England - Premier League on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leeds United vs Bournemouth?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Leeds United 37%, draw 25%, Bournemouth 38%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bournemouth), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bournemouth) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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