Crystal Palace 2-1 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.5
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
51%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.77
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.06
6+ Goals
9%
10.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 29% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.05
1/2
7%
22.1
1/X
6%
13.95
X/1
8%
8.29
X/2
17%
4.62
X/X
8%
5.2
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.45
2/X
8%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
25%
+0.4pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
51%
Away Win
50%
+1.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.3pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 54%
+1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.10/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.31
-16% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -29%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
276 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 80%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.5
18.0 Crosses 16.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crystal Palace
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Liverpool
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.48 xG 1.60
32% Ball Possession 68%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
216 Passes 548
70% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2025 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 2-2 HT 1-2 Liverpool Liverpool İCS
25.05.2025 Liverpool Liverpool 1-1 HT 0-1 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
05.10.2024 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-1 HT 0-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
14.04.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 0-1 HT 0-1 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
09.12.2023 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-2 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
25.02.2023 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crystal Palace
2-1
AWAY Liverpool
2.92 xG 2.14
28% Ball Possession 72%
16 Total Shots 20
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
175 Passes 609
65% Pass Accuracy 89%
33 Box Touches 28
8 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crystal Palace squeezed past Liverpool 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Liverpool at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Crystal Palace had 28% of the ball to Liverpool's 72%, shots finished 16-20, expected goals 2.92 to 2.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.00 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?

Crystal Palace 2-1 Liverpool in the England - Premier League on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Crystal Palace 26%, draw 23%, Liverpool 51%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool)
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