Nottingham Forest 0-1 Sunderland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.01
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
3.63
6+ Goals
8%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 32% vs market 26.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.3
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.25
X/1
25%
4.19
X/2
9%
8.98
X/X
10%
4.8
2/1
10%
24.3
2/2
8%
7.36
2/X
6%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-0.2pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.6pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+2.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sunderland EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -25%
1.45/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.15
-18% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
324 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 75%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
21.4 Crosses 23.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sunderland
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.93 xG 0.05
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
441 Passes 272
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
19.07.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-1 Sunderland Sunderland HAZ
30.12.2017 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-1 HT 0-1 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
12.09.2017 Sunderland Sunderland 0-1 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
27.08.2008 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNLK
28.12.2004 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-2 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
14.09.2004 Sunderland Sunderland 2-0 HT 2-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
0-1
AWAY Sunderland
1.68 xG 1.66
65% Ball Possession 35%
22 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
521 Passes 258
90% Pass Accuracy 81%
36 Box Touches 21
42 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sunderland squeezed past Nottingham Forest 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Nottingham Forest at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 65% of the ball to Sunderland's 35%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 1.68 to 1.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sunderland led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.17 for Sunderland.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland?

Nottingham Forest 0-1 Sunderland in the England - Premier League on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nottingham Forest win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 53%, draw 23%, Sunderland 24%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Nottingham Forest) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nottingham Forest) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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