Las Palmas 0-1 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.98
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.67
6+ Goals
8%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 31% vs market 26.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.0
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
16%
4.88
X/2
12%
6.84
X/X
12%
4.43
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
10%
5.07
2/X
8%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Palmas EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -13%
1.31/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.39
+8% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
16.3 Crosses 17.1
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Palmas
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Almeria
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.96 xG 1.21
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
439 Passes 263
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 Las Palmas Las Palmas 0-1 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS1
28.10.2023 Almeria Almeria 1-2 HT 0-1 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
23.07.2023 Almeria Almeria 0-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas HAZ
09.01.2022 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-1 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
09.10.2021 Almeria Almeria 1-1 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS2
14.02.2021 Almeria Almeria 3-1 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Palmas
0-1
AWAY Almeria
0.77 xG 0.69
63% Ball Possession 37%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
505 Passes 274
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Las Palmas vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria edged past Las Palmas 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Las Palmas at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Las Palmas had 63% of the ball to Almeria's 37%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.77 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Las Palmas and 1.17 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Las Palmas vs Almeria?

Las Palmas 0-1 Almeria in the Spain - 2nd Division on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Palmas vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Las Palmas win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Las Palmas 42%, draw 28%, Almeria 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Las Palmas) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Las Palmas) ✓ Under 2.5
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