Elversberg 1-0 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
35%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.1
Over
57%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
58%
1.6
No
42%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
22%
3.93
2-3
43%
1.82
4-5
24%
2.98
6+
11%
9.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.85
1/2
9%
30.0
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
20%
5.01
X/2
14%
6.98
X/X
6%
5.28
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
11%
4.73
2/X
8%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.0pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.6pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+5.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.5pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elversberg The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel The Market 33%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +33%
1.51/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.38
+5% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +36%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
290 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
18.2 Crosses 17.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elversberg
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.86 xG 1.53
44% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
344 Passes 445
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 32
6 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 1
16.03.2024 Elversberg Elversberg 0-2 HT 0-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
08.10.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-1 HT 1-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL2
22.03.2014 Elversberg Elversberg 0-0 HT 0-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL3
28.09.2013 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-2 HT 0-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elversberg
1-0
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.74 xG 0.76
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
414 Passes 274
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 25
26 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elversberg edged past Holstein Kiel 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Elversberg as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Elversberg had 60% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 40%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.74 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Elversberg and 1.00 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel?

Elversberg 1-0 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elversberg vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elversberg win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Elversberg 43%, draw 22%, Holstein Kiel 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Elversberg) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Elversberg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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