Bendel Insurance 1-1 Bayelsa United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
9%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
Over 2.5
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
3%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
3%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
60%
+7.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.2pp
9%
Away Win
14%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bendel Insurance EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayelsa United EU Bookmakers 17%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.34/0.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.33/1.37
-15% / +74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
390 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 188 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bendel Insurance
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Bayelsa United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
02.03.2025 Bayelsa United Bayelsa United 2-1 HT 1-1 Bendel Insurance Bendel Insurance NIJ
17.10.2024 Bendel Insurance Bendel Insurance 3-0 HT 1-0 Bayelsa United Bayelsa United NIJ
15.01.2024 Bayelsa United Bayelsa United 2-0 HT 1-0 Bendel Insurance Bendel Insurance NIJ
POST-MATCH Bendel Insurance vs Bayelsa United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bendel Insurance and Bayelsa United shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bendel Insurance at 67% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Bayelsa United led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bendel Insurance and 1.33 for Bayelsa United.

What was the final score of Bendel Insurance vs Bayelsa United?

Bendel Insurance 1-1 Bayelsa United in the Nigeria NPFL on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bendel Insurance vs Bayelsa United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bendel Insurance win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Bendel Insurance 67%, draw 24%, Bayelsa United 9%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bendel Insurance) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bendel Insurance) ✓ Under 2.5
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