AIK 2-1 Elfsborg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 27 Oct 2024

AIK
2-1 HT 1-0
Elfsborg
📅27/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

AIK vs Elfsborg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.02
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
36%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.02
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.87
6+ Goals
8%
17.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.02 — our 29% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.82
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
12%
4.53
X/2
13%
7.19
X/X
16%
4.32
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
17%
5.45
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
46%
-11.8pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.5pp
36%
Away Win
26%
+9.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AIK v Elfsborg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AIK EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Elfsborg EU Bookmakers 30%
+9% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +14%
1.74/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.51
-15% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
21.1 Crosses 20.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

AIK vs Elfsborg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AIK
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Elfsborg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.53 xG 1.90
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
403 Passes 314
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
15.05.2024 Elfsborg Elfsborg 6-1 HT 3-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
23.10.2023 Elfsborg Elfsborg 3-0 HT 2-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
11.06.2023 AIK AIK 1-2 HT 0-2 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
06.11.2022 AIK AIK 0-1 HT 0-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
10.07.2022 Elfsborg Elfsborg 2-2 HT 1-1 AIK AIK İSÇ
29.11.2021 Elfsborg Elfsborg 2-4 HT 2-1 AIK AIK İSÇ

AIK 2-1 Elfsborg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AIK
2-1
AWAY Elfsborg
1.51 xG 1.14
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 6
312 Passes 324
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AIK vs Elfsborg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AIK nicked a narrow win over Elfsborg 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 30% / 36%) promised a tight game; AIK found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AIK had 48% of the ball to Elfsborg's 52%, shots finished 16-4, expected goals 1.51 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Elfsborg led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for AIK and 2.67 for Elfsborg.

What was the final score of AIK vs Elfsborg?

AIK 2-1 Elfsborg in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AIK vs Elfsborg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Elfsborg win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split AIK 34%, draw 30%, Elfsborg 36%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Elfsborg) ✗ Under 2.5
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