Union Saint-Gilloise 1-3 Cercle Brugge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 27 Oct 2024

Union Saint-Gilloise
1-3 HT 1-0
Cercle Brugge
📅27/10/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2024/2025

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.45
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
19%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.82
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.2
6+ Goals
10%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 28% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.77
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.5
X/1
17%
3.53
X/2
7%
13.5
X/X
14%
6.21
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
8%
10.85
2/X
5%
19.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
65%
-8.4pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.3pp
19%
Away Win
15%
+4.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Union Saint-Gilloise v Cercle Brugge — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Cercle Brugge EU Bookmakers 18%
-6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +1%
1.90/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/2.01
-10% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
385 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 71%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
20.1 Crosses 14.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Cercle Brugge
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.84 xG 1.18
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
294 Passes 192
67% Pass Accuracy 57%
29 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.05.2024 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 1-2 HT 1-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
07.04.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-3 HT 1-2 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
03.12.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 2-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
24.09.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 0-2 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
18.01.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 1-1 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
09.10.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 1-0 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL

Union Saint-Gilloise 1-3 Cercle Brugge — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
1-3
AWAY Cercle Brugge
1.68 xG 1.79
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 9
306 Passes 164
72% Pass Accuracy 60%
37 Box Touches 23
25 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cercle Brugge beat Union Saint-Gilloise 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Union Saint-Gilloise at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 61% of the ball to Cercle Brugge's 39%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.68 to 1.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.17 for Cercle Brugge.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?

Union Saint-Gilloise 1-3 Cercle Brugge in the Belgium - Pro League on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 56%, draw 25%, Cercle Brugge 19%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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