El Nacional 0-1 Orense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
46%
+3.2pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.6pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.1pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Orense EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.71/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.15
+22% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +21%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
294 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 76%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
18.8 Crosses 13.7
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Orense
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.25 xG 1.11
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
220 Passes 239
68% Pass Accuracy 71%
17 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
04.05.2024 Orense Orense 0-1 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
21.10.2023 Orense Orense 1-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
13.05.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 3-1 HT 3-0 Orense Orense EKV1
20.12.2020 Orense Orense 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
26.09.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 2-2 HT 1-2 Orense Orense EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
0-1
AWAY Orense
2.18 xG 1.76
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
403 Passes 214
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 22
38 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Orense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orense squeezed past El Nacional 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was El Nacional at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, El Nacional had 64% of the ball to Orense's 36%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 2.18 to 1.76 — on chances, El Nacional could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, El Nacional had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for El Nacional and 1.00 for Orense.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Orense?

El Nacional 0-1 Orense in the Ecuador - Premier on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Orense?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 50%, draw 25%, Orense 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (El Nacional) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (El Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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