Macara 1-1 Cumbaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.57
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
26%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.75
Over 2.5
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
60%
-13.9pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.6pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+9.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.7pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macara EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Cumbaya EU Bookmakers 19%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.29/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.41
-26% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
317 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
22.5 Crosses 11.5
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macara
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Cumbaya
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.76 xG 0.57
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
273 Passes 229
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 4
04.05.2024 Cumbaya Cumbaya 1-0 HT 0-0 Macara Macara EKV1
14.08.2022 Cumbaya Cumbaya 1-0 HT 1-0 Macara Macara EKV1
05.04.2022 Macara Macara 0-0 HT 0-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macara
1-1
AWAY Cumbaya
0.82 xG 1.28
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 7
246 Passes 282
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Macara vs Cumbaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macara and Cumbaya shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Macara at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Macara had 48% of the ball to Cumbaya's 52%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.82 to 1.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Cumbaya led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Macara and 0.67 for Cumbaya.

What was the final score of Macara vs Cumbaya?

Macara 1-1 Cumbaya in the Ecuador - Premier on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macara vs Cumbaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macara win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Macara 46%, draw 28%, Cumbaya 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Macara), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Macara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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