MVV Maastricht 1-2 Helmond Sport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
31%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.4
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.94
6+ Goals
11%
8.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.96
1/2
7%
24.0
1/X
9%
12.85
X/1
13%
6.24
X/2
14%
5.29
X/X
12%
5.35
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
10%
3.15
2/X
6%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
34%
+8.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
31%
Away Win
41%
-10.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.9pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.28/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.50
+11% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
311 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 81%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
16.8 Crosses 17.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Helmond Sport
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.25 xG 1.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
319 Passes 444
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.04.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-0 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
08.12.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-2 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
07.04.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-2 HT 0-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
04.11.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 4-0 HT 2-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
01.04.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-2 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
20.08.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-2 HT 2-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
1-2
AWAY Helmond Sport
0.62 xG 1.84
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 8
308 Passes 342
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 24
28 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs Helmond Sport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport nicked a narrow win over MVV Maastricht 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was MVV Maastricht at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 49% of the ball to Helmond Sport's 51%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 0.62 to 1.84 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Helmond Sport's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MVV Maastricht had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for MVV Maastricht and 0.83 for Helmond Sport.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs Helmond Sport?

MVV Maastricht 1-2 Helmond Sport in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs Helmond Sport?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 42%, draw 27%, Helmond Sport 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (MVV Maastricht) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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